Federal data disruptions rarely make headlines, but when they do, the effects can ripple far beyond Washington. The recently resolved federal government shutdown, which ran from October 1 to November 12, halted data collection and processing at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and at other government agencies, resulting in the loss or delayed availability on data such as employment and price levels, or inflation. These delays represent a loss of important information on the current state of the economy and cause a host of problems. One of the largest problems is that the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be making monetary policy decisions when they meet December 9 and 10 without the benefit of the BLS data on the national unemployment rate for October and November. Prior to the government shutdown, the unemployment rate for October was scheduled for release on November 7, and the unemployment rate for November was scheduled for release on December 5. After the shutdown, the revised BLS release data canceled the October release altogether and will release the November unemployment rate on December 16.[1] The FOMC will be making a difficult monetary policy decision regarding tradeoffs between responding to above-target inflation versus labor market conditions with limited information on both inflation and the labor market.
Locally, the Private Enterprise Research Center (PERC) produces a monthly business-cycle index using data on local employment numbers and data on the local unemployment rate as two important inputs.[2] These numbers on local labor market conditions are always released with a delay relative to the national numbers on labor market conditions. For example, the national employment count and unemployment rate for August was released on September 5, while the state level employment count and unemployment rate was released on September 19, and the local (county) level employment count and unemployment rate on October 1. After the shutdown, there is going to be a delay in releasing the national numbers, and that delay will no doubt lead to delays in releasing the state and the local numbers.
In what follows, we explain what went missing, how the shutdown scrambled the labor statistics pipeline, and why local indices cannot function without timely national estimates.
Why PERC’s Business-Cycle Index Stalled
To construct the Business-Cycle Index for the College Station–Bryan MSA, we rely on a set of core data inputs, including BLS data on our local area employment numbers and our local area unemployment rate, as well as the BLS data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Our business-cycle index for August, released in October, used data on total employment, the unemployment rate in our local area for August, and the September CPI value. Our business- cycle index for September, scheduled for release in November, would need the local area employment count and unemployment rate for September and the October CPI. All of this would have been available in mid-November according to the pre-shutdown BLS release schedule. After the shutdown began, the BLS did not release the local labor market data for September (employment count and unemployment rate) as scheduled on October 29. As this is being written, the data release has not yet been rescheduled, so the date when the September data will be released is unknown.
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Data Collection and Release Timelines
The CPS (the ‘Household Survey’) and CES (the ‘Establishment Survey’) —on which national employment and unemployment statistics rely—collect data around the 12th of each month through personal interviews, phone calls, and automated reporting systems. The CES gathers the number of payroll jobs from employers (mostly submitted electronically) and transmits it to the BLS by the 12th. In contrast, the CPS collects unemployment information through interviews and phone calls conducted by field agents. BLS analysts then use statistical techniques to finalize both employment counts and unemployment estimates by the end of the month and release them at the beginning of the following month.
Figure 1 illustrates the scheduled dates of certain BLS data releases that occurred as scheduled (solid blue lines), as well as scheduled BLS data releases that did not occur as scheduled (dashed blue and dashed red lines). These missed schedules are further differentiated by whether they have been rescheduled (dashed red lines) and not yet rescheduled (dashed blue lines). Finally, the rescheduled dates are also listed (solid red lines). For example, the CPI for September was originally scheduled for release on October 15 but that release date was missed but has been rescheduled (hence a dashed red line). The CPI for September was subsequently scheduled for a new release date of October 24 (hence a solid red line). Meanwhile, the State and Local Employment and State Unemployment Rate release scheduled for October 21 was missed and not yet rescheduled (hence dashed blue line).
Figure 1 also illustrates an upper timeline and a lower timeline. The upper timeline highlights what happened in August and September. August was a normal month with the surveys and data releases all occurring as scheduled. For September, the surveys were also completed on time, and the data were fully processed by BLS. However, the government shutdown that began on October 1 prevented staff from releasing the national September estimates on the scheduled date of October 3, 2025. These estimates were instead released after the shutdown ended, on November 20. Normally, state and metropolitan-area employment and unemployment data for September would follow the national release roughly two weeks later—around October 21 and October 29—because local estimates are benchmarked to the national CPS and CES results. These releases were also delayed and have not yet been rescheduled.
The lower timeline highlights October and November. There will be even larger issues with the October data. October was the first month in which no surveys could be conducted at all. BLS field offices and data-collection systems were shut down starting October 1 until November 12. This prevented CPS field agents from interviewing households. Although automated CES payroll submissions may still have reached the agency, CPS unemployment data could not be produced without conducting interviews. Consequently, the October unemployment rate is simply not available.
Figure 1: BLS Data Collection and Release Timeline
As the shutdown was lifted on November 12, BLS resumed operations and extended the data-collection window for the month of November. On November 20, BLS released a statement noting that the November employment numbers would be released on December 16, and that October employment numbers would be included in that same release.
The original release dates for the November reports were national employment and unemployment on December 5, CPI on December 10, State and Local employment and unemployment on December 19, and local unemployment on December 31. The date for release of the state and local labor market data has not yet been rescheduled.
The government shutdown may have lasted just six weeks, but its statistical aftershocks will linger for months in national reporting, and perhaps much longer in regional economic reporting. Until the federal agencies resume full processing and release cycles, we will be left with unavoidable knowledge gaps. A future administration might consider whether or not our BLS and other federal government statistical offices should be classified as essential workers to the functioning of the American economy. If regional economic indices are of no concern, it still seems foolhardy to put the FOMC in the position of making difficult policy decisions without the most current information on the state of the economy.
FOOTNOTES
[1] The October data on national employment will be included in the release of the November data now rescheduled for December 16. The October data on the national unemployment rate could not be collected retroactively.
[2] Such local indexes are computed by various entities for local areas around the nation. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas computes business cycle indices for various metro areas in Texas such as Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.